Redskins vs Saints: NFC division leaders face off under the lights as the New Orleans Saints host the Washington Redskins on Monday Night Football to close out Week 5.
In a straight-up, pick’em format, the proprietary computer model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and 2017, performing better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
It went a blistering 11-4 on its Week 4 picks straight-up, and nailed three of its four top-rated selections, including Kansas City (-3.5) over Denver on Monday night. It’s now 10-3 on top-rated picks this season, extending its run to a remarkable 58-37.
Now, it has simulated Redskins vs. Saints to produce strong against the spread, over-under, and money line picks. We can tell you the model is leaning toward the Over, and it also has a pick against the spread that’s hitting in more than half of simulations. You can only see that one at SportsLine.
The model knows the Saints are once again an offensive powerhouse, and it starts with future Hall of Fame QB Drew Brees, who leads the NFL in completion percentage (75.8) and has eight TDs. He has yet to throw an interception.
Saints running back Alvin Kamara has a whopping 611 yards from scrimmage – he had 19 carries for 134 yards last week against the Giants and 15 receptions for 124 yards against the Falcons the week before. This week, the run game will get Mark Ingram back from a four-game suspension. The Saints also have one of the top wide receivers in the game in Michael Thomas, who is averaging 10.5 receptions for 111 yards.
The hot-and-cold New Orleans defense ranks fourth against the run, a key trait as it faces bruising veteran Adrian Peterson.
Just because the Saints have outscored the competition doesn’t mean they’ll cover the spread on Monday Night Football.
Most teams will find it tough to stop the Redskins’ offensive combo featuring Peterson and supreme game-manager QB Alex Smith. Peterson, signed right before the season started to replace the injured Derrius Guice, has 236 yards in three games with three TDs. Counterpart Chris Thompson is averaging 5.5 yards per rush.
But it’s been the defense that has really shined. Washington ranks seventh in rushing yards allowed, third against the pass (187 yards per game) and second in points allowed at just 14.7 per game. The Redskins, Jaguars and Ravens are the only teams that rank in the top 10 in all three phases.